There have been debates about which betting odd is better, opening odd or closing odd. Read on to know more about the difference between the accuracy of these odds.
In betting, odds are a representation of the probability of a sport that enables you to figure out how much money you will earn if you win the bet. When a bookmaker opens odds onto a market for an upcoming game, it’s called opening odds. These odds are based on statistical analysis of the team’s past performances and also factor in players’ injuries and other relevant pieces of information, such as the amount of bet money that is likely to be placed. There is always an in-built margin on each opening odd. On the other hand, closing odds are offered just before the match starts, which reflect all news, statistics and punter sentiment.
The opening odds rarely give you the actual likelihood of the outcome of the match. As the bookmaker often lacks information, which can be seen when the odds are released and the match starts. This happens because the betting company releases the odds a week before the match starts and within this time interval anything can happen. It means the betting company has to adjust their odds after receiving new information and also look at how the market is reacting.
An efficient market hypothesis, which is commonly applied to financial markets, suggests that the closing odds are more efficient than the opening odds in gauging the probability. This is because closing odds reflect all the information that is in the market and also punter knowledge and sentiment.
These live betting odds are based on how the market has reacted to all the information, statistics and news about the team that have been received before the match starts. The closing odds more accurately represent the fair implied probability of events. If you track the record of beating the closing odds, you have superior information to the bookmaker.
According to the efficient market hypothesis, closing odds provide an unbiased reflection of the probabilities of each outcome and to continuously beat the closing odds, you need to identify overly generous opening odds. Inefficiencies will inevitably exist in the market as the opening odds don’t reflect all the information and the bookmakers adjust the odds that make the closing odds an unbiased reflection of the probabilities of an event’s outcome. One of the main concerns among successful punters is whether they have a genuine edge over the bookmaker, or they have simply been lucky. For this, the punters can differentiate between a reliable strategy and blind luck. Tracking the record of beating the closing odds will give them insight rather than luck to be in the long run.
A successful betting is about finding positive value in the odd market and persistently beating the closing line. Beating the closing odds can give you an opportunity to fence over the original bet before the match starts.
Beating the closing odds, in the long run, is the best indicator of winning bettor. Thus, in order to be a successful winner in the odds market, the punter must concentrate on positive values and beat the closing odds over a long period.